Tulsa Is 3-0 and Dangerous. Arkansas Is 1-2 and Out of Excuses.

Before any football, I want to say this. Our thoughts are with Tulsa outside linebackers coach John Beckley and his family, who suffered a sudden and terrible loss this month. That whole program has been playing with a heavy heart, and football comes second to that, always. So we send our love to John Beckley and his family and all of the people in Tulsa affected by this loss.

Here at 4th and Five, we study the game film. We try to take our love for this team, our passion, and our emotions out of the judgment and just tell you what the tape says. This report is cross-checked against all three of Tulsa's game tapes, the box scores, and what both coaching staffs said on the record this week. So let me tell you what the tape says. This is a must-win for Arkansas, there is a lot riding on it, and as it stands right now, I am nervous. I am not going to dress that up for you.

The hard truth about where Arkansas is

It is unfortunate that Ryan Silverfield walked into this era of Arkansas football, this downward slope. I will give him that. But I am not going to pretend his first season has gone the way he told us it would. He spent the entire offseason telling us that he and his staff were going to put a team on the field that was prepared and competitive. Three games in, we have not seen a team that is prepared, and we have not seen a team that is competitive. That is not a shot, that is just what the film shows. We are 1-2, our only win came against an FCS team, and we are carrying a 12-game losing streak against FBS competition. A loss to a Group of Five team at home would not be a bump in the road. It would be a crisis.

We were told our identity was going to be running the football. Let me tell you, we have not been able to run the football. We ran for 17 yards against Georgia. If we cannot line up and dominate the line of scrimmage against Tulsa the way an SEC team is supposed to dominate the line of scrimmage against a Group of Five opponent, then we are going to have to start having honest conversations about this coaching staff in general. Good staffs turn things around, great staffs have done it before, and I would never tell a man he cannot do what he set out to do. But it is on them to prove it, and so far this is not in any way what Hunter Yurachek or Ryan Silverfield told us we were going to get.

Here is what worries me most, because it is a pattern, not a one-time thing. When I turn on the offensive tape, I see a team that is not fundamentally sound. Missed assignments. Communication problems on the offensive line. Dropped passes. Penalties. Missed blocks. Those are not talent problems, those are preparation problems. And we still have not settled our own quarterback. Three games in, we are still rotating KJ Jackson and AJ Hill instead of letting one of them own the job, and you cannot build an identity when the guy touching the ball every play changes series to series. Until I see something different, how am I supposed to expect a different team to walk out of that tunnel Saturday? I hope I am wrong. I genuinely hope I am grading different tape next week. But I have to call what I see.

Do not sleep on Tulsa, this is a real football team

Now let me educate you on the other side, because a lot of folks are going to wave Tulsa off, and that is a mistake. Tulsa is 3-0. They opened the year by walking into Stillwater and beating Oklahoma State, a Big 12 team, 24-10, and that win has only aged better, because Oklahoma State turned around and beat a ranked Oregon team. Tulsa is getting votes in the AP poll. Second-year head coach Tre Lamb has that program believing, and here is the tell, after they beat Oklahoma State he told his own team they were worse in every phase and he called his own offensive line very average. That is a hungry team that is not satisfied. That is a dangerous team. And here is the storyline you will hear all week: Tulsa has not beaten Arkansas since 1976, and national writers are already saying everything is lining up for it to finally happen. I do not want to hear that, but I understand why they are writing it.

The Tulsa offense

Their first-year coordinator, Kevin Barbay, runs a pro-style, run-first offense built on the outside zone. They want to lean on a veteran offensive line, four of five starters returned, and pound it. The back to know is Damari Alston, an Auburn transfer who finishes runs, and the one who scares me is Trequan Jones, a home-run hitter who already has an 81-yard touchdown run this year and also took a kickoff 98 yards to the house. Their top receiver is Oran Singleton, and Jimmy Calloway is the volume guy who leads the team in catches. Do not forget David Wells either, a returning threat who put up 44 catches and 4 touchdowns at Oregon State last year.

And let me kill a myth right now, because I keep hearing it. People see a Group of Five team and assume Arkansas will just line up and shove them around up front. Not this team. Go look at their offensive line. This is not a small, overmatched Group of Five front. It is big, it is veteran, and it is a real problem if we think we are going to win this game on size alone.

But the name I need Arkansas fans to circle is the quarterback. Their starter, Baylor Hayes, is hurt with a knee and is not playing. Tulsa is going to its backup, a seventh-year veteran named Dexter Williams, and here is why that matters. Williams is a dual-threat. Lamb has already said they plan to run him. And if you have watched Arkansas this season, you know exactly where I am going. We have faced a bunch of dual-threat quarterbacks already, and we have failed the test every time. Utah gashed us with a mobile quarterback. Georgia's quarterback ran for over 120 yards on us, and Coach Silverfield admitted those quarterback runs absolutely crushed us. Now here comes another one. Until we prove we can contain a quarterback who can run, that is the matchup that keeps me up at night.

The Tulsa defense

This is the strength of their team, and the coordinator, Josh Reardon, has a clear identity. They play a 4-2-5, they gamble for the football, and they bend but they do not break. They forced four turnovers on Oklahoma State and they have 10 sacks in three games. Watch the tape and you see it, they gave up yards to Oklahoma State and to Sam Houston, but they win the game at the goal line. They stuffed Oklahoma State on fourth-and-1 at the 3, and they stoned Sam Houston at the 5 in the final two minutes to win the game. The player to watch is edge rusher Thomas Davis, who is among their sack leaders and strip-sacked the Oklahoma State quarterback, with Kyran Duhon right behind him as the closer who sealed the Sam Houston game with a sack. Their linebacker Chris Thompson leads the team in tackles, and their corner Elijah Green is a ball hawk who picked off 5 passes a year ago.

Now here is the honest counter, and it is the one thing working in Arkansas's favor. Those defensive numbers came against Oklahoma State breaking in a new staff, a Conference USA team, and an FCS team. Saturday is the first time that defense sees real SEC size and speed. Their corners are small. If Arkansas is ever going to impose its will on somebody, this is the body type to do it against. The talent to win this game is on the Arkansas roster. That has never been my question.

What Arkansas has to do

If we are going to win this the right way, it is not complicated. First, settle the quarterback, pick KJ Jackson or AJ Hill and let one of them own it instead of rotating. Second, get Chris Marshall matched up on those small corners, he is our best weapon and that is the body type to attack. Third, be gap sound and contain Dexter Williams, because a mobile quarterback is the one thing that has beaten us all year, and this is the game where our edge rusher Quincy Rhodes has to show up. And above everything, protect the football and finish drives with touchdowns, not field goals, because Tulsa bends and then wins the game on takeaways and red-zone stands. Do that, and the more talented roster takes over. Fail at it, and we are right back in the exact kind of low-scoring street fight Tulsa is hoping for.

Why I am picking the upset

Let me be clear about the talent, because it matters. From a pure roster standpoint, I believe Arkansas is more talented than Tulsa, and Arkansas should win this football game. If this were just about talent, I would not be nervous. But football is not just talent, it is preparation, discipline, and coaching, and on that front, mostly on offense, Tulsa has looked like the more sound, more prepared team through three weeks. That is uncomfortable to say about an SEC program against a Group of Five program, but it is what the tape shows.

And the mindset worries me too. The only team that should feel nervous and uncomfortable walking into that stadium Saturday is Arkansas. The Hogs have everything to lose. The leadership of this athletic department is sitting there with their fingers crossed hoping this goes right. Tulsa has nothing to lose, they are playing with house money, and a loose, confident, hungry team is a hard out. Lamb even said it out loud this week. He called this a bar fight, and said that if he can keep it close into the second half, all the pressure is on us. He is not wrong. The only reason Arkansas is favored at all is that the general public assumes the SEC team is supposed to win. But we have not shown ourselves to be an SEC-caliber team in any phase this season, so I am not going to lean on a logo to make my pick.

4th & Five is an independent sports commentary show and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the University of Arkansas or its athletic programs.